Friday, October 26, 2012

Armed Ethnic Conflict Potential Unlike Sri Lanka but Strong Ceasefire Agreements Still Needed for Efficient Peace Process

The Burmese army will not be able to eliminate the ethnic armed resistance in the country in the same way the Sri Lankan military defeated the rebel Tamil Tiger army because the geography in Burma is very different from that of Sri Lanka, according to Ashely South while speaking at a meeting with the Mon ethnic community in Sangkhlaburi, Kanchanaburi Province, Thailand on July 27.

Ashely South, who is an consultant of the Myanmar Peace Support Initiative (MPSI) based in Rangoon. (Photo: GMSUK)
Despite some foreign academics saying that the Burmese army will be able to wipe out the armed ethnic groups in the future, Ashely South, a consultant of the Myanmar Peace Support Initiative (MPSI), disagreed and identified that Burma has many ethnic armed groups, whereas there was only one, the Tamil Tiger army, in Sri Lanka that actively fought against the Sri Lankan government.

The armed ethnic groups in Burma have bases along the border areas, from which they can widely defend attacks from the Burmese army, and such barrier strongholds were not part of the strategy of Sri Lanka’s Tamail Tigers.

Ashely South is the author of the book Mon Nationalism and Civil War in Burma: The Golden Sheldrake and for the past 20 years has worked with the Thailand Burma Border Consortium (TBBC) in ethnic Mon and Karen areas along the Thai-Burmese border.

Norway failed to solve difficulties in the peace process in Sri Lanka despite having established a peace working team in the country similar to the one they recently established in Burma. The Sri Lankan government wiped out the Tamil Tigers in 2009 when they launched heavy military offensives against the rebel group even though they faced condemnation from the international community for human rights abuses.

After Norwegian State Secretary Torgeir Larsen visited Burma in May and met with the Burmese government, Norway established an office of the MPSI in Rangoon that is working for peace inside Burma. Aung Min, a principal peace negotiator from Naypyidaw, requested such action from the Norwegian government during a visit to the European country in April.

Currently the MPSI chiefly works with the peace process in the Burma through mutual cooperation with the Burmese government and the ethnic armed groups.

Ashely South said that it is too early to say that real peace can reach Burma because his organization has only just begun working to help settle the people in Tenasserim Division and Pegu Division at Kyauk Gyi Township who have suffered from the fighting in these conflict areas.

However, he said that he has found some officials from the Burmese government to hold the belief that the ethnic conflict can be solved by promoting development in the ethnic areas.  These areas have remained underdeveloped for many years and some officials believe this is what initiated the armed struggle and opposition to the central government.

Different ethnic armed groups have urged the Burmese government to hold nationwide ceasefire agreements and stop the destructive fighting in Kachin State.

“Fighting can start in the country at any time,” said Ashely South,  “and we do not know how long our project can last because the government has not stopped fighting in places like Kachin State despite the ethnic armed groups having asked them to stop,”

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Thu, Aug 2, 2012 at 2:49 PM
Name of sender: Lyih Dane
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COMMENTS: The elimination of the Tamil Tiger by the Sri Lankan government was the one-off. In reality, it is not that easy to wipe out long established rebels such as those in Burma. Given the aggressive mentality of the Tatmadaw, it would have done so years ago if it could. There are also those, including NLD’s Daw Suu, who against the idea of wiping out the rebels and the use of violence to solve political problems. As a result, different approaches have been taken by the authority. As we all know, the most successful strategy so far is to make peace with one and fight the other. Had all-out war been started from all corners, this country would have suffered dire

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